In the ever-evolving world of global politics and trade, few events have been as closely watched as the presidency of Donald Trump and its impact on China. Trump’s first term in office was characterized by trade wars, tariffs, and contentious diplomatic exchanges between the United States and China. However, as Trump prepares to return to the political spotlight with a possible second term, the relationship between China and the United States seems to be undergoing a shift. This “Trump 2.0” era, which appears to favor China in several key aspects, has raised the question: can this honeymoon last, or are challenges lurking just around the corner?

The Early Days of the Trump-China Relationship

When Donald Trump first assumed office in 2017, his rhetoric surrounding China was aggressive. The U.S.-China trade deficit, intellectual property concerns, and accusations of currency manipulation were among the key points of contention. The Trump administration quickly initiated a trade war, imposing billions of dollars in tariffs on Chinese goods, hoping to level the playing field for American businesses. The results were mixed, with some industries benefiting from tariffs, while others, particularly in agriculture and manufacturing, faced setbacks.

Trump’s hard stance against China seemed to be a direct confrontation of China’s rapid rise as a global economic power. The U.S. aimed to curtail China’s growing influence on the global stage and its aggressive industrial policies, including the “Made in China 2025” initiative, which sought to make China a global leader in advanced technology sectors. Despite the combative approach, by the end of Trump’s first term, some areas of cooperation did emerge, such as the Phase One Trade Deal, where China agreed to increase purchases of American goods.

Trump 2.0: A Different China-America Dynamic?

Fast forward to the present day, and the dynamics between China and the U.S. under Trump’s second potential presidency appear significantly different. For many Chinese officials, Trump’s tough approach during his first term was a double-edged sword. On one hand, it resulted in financial pain and friction for China, but on the other, it presented an opportunity for China to assert itself more firmly on the global stage. Under Trump 2.0, there seems to be a growing sense of optimism in Beijing about what a return to power for Trump might mean.

In many ways, the Trump administration’s “America First” policy, which focused on prioritizing domestic economic interests over global cooperation, inadvertently gave China room to maneuver. As the U.S. pulled back from international agreements such as the Paris Climate Accord and the World Health Organization (WHO), China took a leadership role, positioning itself as the global voice of free trade and climate action. This shift allowed China to bolster its international reputation, which, in turn, supported its broader strategic goals.

For China, a second term for Trump could mean continuity in U.S. policy and a stable environment in which to plan its next steps. While the trade war was costly for China, the U.S. has also suffered from retaliatory tariffs. China’s resilience in the face of these economic challenges has led to significant reforms and diversification within the Chinese economy, making it more adaptable to changes in global trade policies.

Strategic Benefits for China: What’s Going Well?

Several key areas suggest that China has been benefiting from Trump 2.0’s policies and the global landscape that has emerged. These factors include trade, economic policy, and international diplomacy.

1. Trade and Economic Resilience

One of the main reasons for China’s success during Trump’s first term was its ability to withstand the trade war. Despite the tariffs, China found new markets and diversified its supply chains. In fact, China’s trade with countries outside the U.S. surged, and the country became more deeply integrated into global supply chains. Moreover, China has focused on boosting its domestic consumption and innovation to decrease reliance on foreign markets. Its tech giants, like Huawei and Tencent, have become increasingly self-reliant in the face of U.S. sanctions.

Additionally, China’s robust manufacturing and export sectors, combined with strategic investments in high-tech industries, have contributed to its economic resilience. Even under Trump’s tariffs, Chinese exports to the U.S. grew in 2020, defying many predictions of economic downturn.

2. Global Influence and Leadership

China has also successfully leveraged the vacuum left by the United States in global governance. Under Trump, the U.S. withdrew from multilateral agreements, leaving China to take up the mantle of leadership in international organizations. For instance, China has been a driving force in the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) and the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), both of which aim to reshape global infrastructure and trade routes. These projects have strengthened China’s relationships with countries in Asia, Africa, and Europe.

Furthermore, China has strengthened its leadership on issues like climate change. Trump’s decision to pull the U.S. out of the Paris Agreement created a void in international climate negotiations, which China has filled by positioning itself as a global advocate for climate action.

3. A Declining U.S. Influence and Internal Strife

Internally, the U.S. is facing significant challenges, including political polarization, rising domestic unrest, and economic inequality. The ongoing political instability and the challenges that Trump faces in re-establishing control over the U.S. political landscape have made it difficult for the U.S. to project strength on the global stage. As America’s focus remains inward, China has been able to step up its global leadership.

Moreover, the ongoing issues with the U.S. federal government and the perception of weakening American democracy have cast doubt on U.S. resolve abroad. With China’s stable, authoritarian system, Beijing has been able to present itself as a reliable, long-term partner in international affairs.

Can the Honeymoon Last?

While China has benefited from the Trump 2.0 dynamic so far, the future is far from certain. Despite its successes, China’s position on the global stage is not without its challenges, and many factors could shift the trajectory of this honeymoon phase.

1. Long-term Economic Impact of U.S. Policies

A return to hard-line economic policies, like new rounds of tariffs or the imposition of sanctions on critical Chinese sectors, could weaken China’s growth prospects. Additionally, Trump’s policies regarding China’s tech industry, particularly the ongoing concerns about intellectual property theft and the “decoupling” of the U.S. and Chinese tech industries, could lead to lasting economic damage.

China must also contend with its own demographic and economic challenges, such as an aging population and rising debt levels, which could hinder long-term economic growth. While Trump’s rhetoric and policies may have seemed beneficial in the short term, China’s long-term success may depend more on internal reforms than external factors.

2. Global Backlash Against Chinese Expansion

China’s growing influence has been met with increasing skepticism from several countries, particularly in the West. Many nations are now questioning China’s geopolitical ambitions, with concerns about human rights, surveillance technologies, and growing authoritarianism. This could lead to a broader coalition forming against Chinese expansion, and countries like India and Australia, which have been closer to China, might shift their policies in response to global pressure.

3. Shifting U.S. Public Opinion

Trump’s second term, if it happens, is not guaranteed to maintain the same level of support for Chinese policies. U.S. voters and policymakers may shift their focus to other issues, such as domestic infrastructure, healthcare, or international security concerns. A new political landscape in the U.S. could drastically change the dynamics of U.S.-China relations.

Conclusion

The Trump 2.0 era has been a period of relative stability and success for China, with the U.S. grappling with internal issues and shifting international priorities. China has capitalized on these factors to solidify its position as a global leader. However, challenges lie ahead, and the long-term benefits of this arrangement remain uncertain. As the global geopolitical landscape continues to evolve, so too will the dynamics of the U.S.-China relationship. The honeymoon may be enjoyable for now, but the real test will be whether China can continue to navigate these changing tides in the years to come.