The ongoing war in Ukraine, which began with Russia’s invasion in February 2022, has dominated global headlines for over two years. As the conflict continues to evolve, the questions of who is currently “winning” the war, whether it could spread further into Europe, and what Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s recent comments about a potential ceasefire mean, have sparked significant debate among policymakers, analysts, and ordinary citizens alike. In this live Q&A session, we explore these complex and pressing issues in an effort to gain a clearer understanding of the situation.

Who is Winning the War in Ukraine?

Defining who is “winning” a war can be a complicated matter. In the case of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the answer is far from straightforward and is heavily influenced by the criteria used to measure success. Military gains, international support, civilian resilience, economic stability, and political maneuvering all play crucial roles in determining the outcome.

Russia’s Military Situation

Russia’s initial hopes for a quick victory were dashed within weeks of the invasion, as Ukrainian forces mounted a fierce resistance, bolstered by international arms supplies, notably from the United States and European nations. However, Russia has maintained control over substantial parts of eastern Ukraine, including parts of the Donetsk, Luhansk, and Zaporizhzhia regions. The heavy use of artillery, air strikes, and the attempted annexation of these regions have created significant humanitarian and military challenges for Ukraine.

As of late 2024, the front lines have largely stabilized, with ongoing skirmishes, but neither side has achieved the decisive breakthrough they hoped for in the earlier months of the war. The conflict is increasingly seen as a war of attrition, with both sides suffering heavy losses but showing no immediate signs of backing down.

Ukraine’s Resistance and Resilience

On the other hand, Ukraine has defied expectations with its resilience. The Ukrainian military has retaken large swathes of territory, including the key city of Kharkiv, the strategic port city of Kherson, and parts of the Donbas region. The Ukrainian leadership, led by President Zelenskyy, has maintained a steadfast position, rallying international support for both military and financial aid.

Ukraine has proven its ability to wage modern warfare with the assistance of Western powers, deploying advanced weapons systems such as U.S. Patriot missiles, drones, and artillery systems. The Ukrainian public remains resilient, and there is little sign of waning morale among the citizens, despite the heavy toll the war has taken on the country.

International Influence and Support

International support for Ukraine, particularly from NATO countries, has played a critical role in the Ukrainian ability to withstand Russian advances. The European Union, the U.S., and other allies have provided billions of dollars in military aid, sanctions on Russia, and humanitarian assistance. However, the level of support for Ukraine from the international community remains fragile. There have been growing voices in some European capitals and U.S. political circles calling for a shift in strategy, with some advocating for a negotiated settlement or cessation of military support to Ukraine, particularly as the costs of the war escalate globally.

The U.S. and NATO have avoided direct involvement in the conflict, though they have provided training, intelligence sharing, and weapons support. The ongoing question is how long Western countries can continue to supply Ukraine with the resources it needs, especially as domestic concerns over inflation, energy prices, and military fatigue grow.

Who is Winning?

While Russia retains control over parts of Ukraine’s territory, the momentum appears to be shifting in favor of Ukraine, which has successfully regained territory and showcased significant endurance. However, with ongoing battles and no clear path to a full resolution, it’s difficult to say one side is decisively “winning.”

Could the Conflict Spread into Europe?

One of the most pressing concerns surrounding the Ukraine conflict is the possibility that the war could spread beyond Ukraine’s borders into Europe. While the fighting has been largely contained to Ukraine, the geopolitical implications of the war are significant, and the potential for broader escalation remains.

NATO’s Role and Article 5

NATO’s involvement, while largely indirect, could escalate the situation. If a NATO member state were to be attacked or provoked, the alliance could invoke Article 5, which considers an attack on one member as an attack on all. This clause has never been invoked in NATO’s history, but it remains a key factor in preventing Russia from directly attacking NATO members.

Several NATO countries, including Poland, Romania, and the Baltic states, share borders with Ukraine, and there have been incidents of missile strikes and airspace violations that have raised concerns about Russia testing NATO’s resolve. Any significant miscalculation could bring the alliance into direct conflict with Russia, a development that could swiftly escalate into a broader war.

The Risk of Wider Conflict

While Russia has avoided directly attacking NATO member states, there are fears that Russia could take actions to destabilize the region, particularly through cyberattacks, economic warfare, and the use of irregular forces. Russia has historically used hybrid warfare tactics, and many fear that it could expand these efforts to weaken European unity and support for Ukraine.

The ongoing migration crisis, the potential for more refugee flows, and the destabilization of global energy supplies could also contribute to tensions in Europe, further raising the stakes for the continent.

What’s Behind Zelenskyy’s Ceasefire Comments?

Recently, President Zelenskyy made remarks about the potential for a ceasefire in the conflict. While some saw this as a shift in policy, others were skeptical about whether such comments signaled a genuine move toward negotiations or if they were a tactical maneuver.

War Fatigue and International Pressure

Zelenskyy’s comments likely reflect the intense pressure he faces not only from within Ukraine but also from the international community. As the war continues with no clear end in sight, public opinion in both Ukraine and the West is becoming increasingly divided over the prolonged costs of the conflict. European leaders are facing growing concerns over the economic impact of the war, particularly energy prices, inflation, and the refugee crisis.

Zelenskyy’s recent statements could be an attempt to balance these pressures while still holding firm to his ultimate goal of Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. Ukraine has consistently rejected the notion of a ceasefire that would involve conceding territory to Russia, but Zelenskyy’s comments may be signaling a willingness to entertain negotiations if the conditions are right.

Tactical Shift or Real Diplomacy?

There are two key interpretations of Zelenskyy’s comments. On one hand, they could signal a tactical shift, as Ukraine seeks to test Russia’s willingness to come to the negotiating table. On the other hand, it could be a sign of growing frustration with the continued suffering of the Ukrainian people, with Zelenskyy acknowledging that a diplomatic resolution may be the only way to end the conflict without further devastation.

Zelenskyy’s broader goal is to maintain the momentum of Western support and use it to push for a comprehensive peace that respects Ukraine’s territorial sovereignty. However, the challenge remains that Russia has shown no indication of backing down, making any ceasefire or peace agreement highly contingent on Russian willingness to negotiate.

Conclusion

The war in Ukraine is far from over, and there are no easy answers to the questions surrounding the conflict’s trajectory. While Ukraine has shown remarkable resilience, the question of who is “winning” remains uncertain as both sides continue to endure significant losses. The possibility of the conflict spreading into Europe remains a pressing concern, with NATO’s strategic position and Russia’s potential tactics being central to the future of the war. Meanwhile, Zelenskyy’s comments about a potential ceasefire reflect the delicate balance of maintaining military pressure while considering diplomatic avenues to end the suffering.

As we continue to watch these developments unfold, the live Q&A today seeks to provide clarity on the current state of the war, potential outcomes, and the global implications of this ongoing crisis. Join us for a deeper dive into the situation and the pressing questions surrounding Ukraine’s fight for sovereignty, the potential for peace, and the risks that Europe faces in this war-torn era.